HITTING
"The Yankees' offense had one problem last season- Rickey Henderson couldn't stay healthy. Henderson (.291, 17, 37) was disabled twice with a hamstring injury that limited him to 95 games. He failed to lead the league in stolen bases for the first time in the last eight years.
Assuming Henderson can avoid injury, the Yankees will have no problem scoring runs. Don Mattingly (.327, 30, 115), who never seems to run out of encores, will try to come up with another after a year in which he smashed the major league record with six grand slams and tied another mark by homering in eight consecutive games. Mike Pagliarulo (.234, 32, 87) supplies more power from the left side. Ex-Card Jack Clark (.286, 35, 106) will bring his slugging power to Yankee Stadium as a likely DH. Aging Dave Winfield (.275, 27, 97) will try to shake off a poor second half in which he collected just seven home runs and 29 RBI."
-Tom Pedulla, The Complete Handbook of Baseball, 1988 Edition
PITCHING
"Rick Rhoden (16-10, 3.86) should fare even better in his second season with the Yankees, assuming he can avoid the freak injuries that hampered him at the beginning and end of 1987. Ex-White Sox mainstay Richard Dotson (11-12, 4.17) is a welcome addition to the rotation and the Yankees were looking forward to having Bill Gullickson for a full season in 1988. But free agent Gullickson left another gap in the questionable Yankee mound corps when he expressed a yen for a one-year, $1-million-plus and signed with the Tokyo Giants in January.
Ron Guidry (5-8, 3.67) is a question mark after off-season shoulder surgery. Ex-Mariner southpaw Lee Guetterman (11-4, 3.81) figures as a spot starter or in relief. Top prospect Al Leiter, who fanned 28 batters in his first 22 2/3 innings, has a chance to make the staff, either as a starter or reliever. The Yankees managed to re-sign free agent relief ace Dave Righetti, who has registered 138 saves- the third highest total in club history- in four years in the bullpen."
-Tom Pedulla, The Complete Handbook of Baseball, 1988 Edition
FIELDING
"Led by Gold Glove winners Mattingly (first base) and Winfield (right field), the Yankees are an exceptional club defensively. They ranked second in the AL last year with a .983 fielding percentage and were charged with just 102 errors in 162 games. Steady second baseman Willie Randolph turns the double play better than anyone. The Yankees filled a hole at shortstop by obtaining Rafael Santana from the crosstown Mets, and the acquisition of Don Slaught from Texas strengthens a weak catching corps."
-Tom Pedulla, The Complete Handbook of Baseball, 1988 Edition
OUTLOOK
"The Yankees are good enough to contend and possibly win. Their greatest obstacles to success are off the field. Principal owner George Steinbrenner's involvement generally produces negative results, and his managerial revolving door, which moves at a furious pace, has delivered Billy Martin for a fifth term. No wonder this proud franchise is without a World Championship since 1978."
-Tom Pedulla, The Complete Handbook of Baseball, 1978 Edition
"Billy's Back, but it says here that the Yankees won't be.
Billy Martin gets his fifth tour of duty as the Yankees manager. It shouldn't be much more productive than the last three, unless, of course, some pitching help comes to the Bronx.
Only in his first stint on the job he calls 'the only one I've ever wanted' did Martin get the team into the World Series. They won in 1977 after losing to the Reds in '76.
Martin's days as an effective manager seem long behind him. And owner George Steinbrenner's interference has robbed the proudest franchise in baseball history of its tradition and stature.
While a pennant shouldn't be predicted by even the most optimistic of Yankee fans, a full-scale collapse should not be expected, either. There are too many talented hitters and a few good pitchers who will keep the Yankees near the top of the AL East for several months.
By September, we predict they'll have faded, with only Baltimore and Cleveland behind in the standings.
The Yankees will score, especially if Rickey Henderson stays healthy. He probably won't play center field, which should help his legs. And he won't steal a mere 41 bases, his worst total since he began dominating the basepaths in 1980 and the first year he didn't lead the American League in thefts.
'Rickey is the key to our offense,' Martin says. 'He's the catalyst. If he's healthy, he makes everyone in our lineup more dangerous by what he can do on the bases.'
Henderson should also hit around .300 and score well over 100 runs- particularly if Don Mattingly, Dave Winfield and Mike Pagliarulo continue their hard-hitting ways. Henderson hit .291 with 17 homers and had a .423 on-base percentage in 1987.
Mattingly simply is the best player in baseball, a dynamic hitter (.327, 93 runs, 186 hits, 38 doubles, 30 homers, 115 RBI) and Gold Glove first baseman. His six grand slams show how productive he is in the clutch- how many players even get to bat six times in a season with the bases loaded? Besides his grand slam record, Mattingly tied Dale Long's major league mark by homering in eight straight games.
Winfield is often criticized for not being a clutch hitter, but this guy drove in 100 or more runs for five straight years before falling three below the century mark last season. He hit 27 homers and scored 83 runs on a .275 average.
Overall, the Yankees tied for eighth in the AL with a .262 team batting average and tied for fifth with 196 homers. Though they showed plenty of prowess at the plate, only the Twins bettered them in the field as the Yanks' 102 errors ranked as second fewest to Minnesota's 98.
The Yankees would like to move Roberto Kelly into center field. The speedster hit .269 in a short trial last season, but at AAA Columbus batted .278 with 77 runs and a league leading 51 steals. Another hot outfield prospect is Jay Buhner, who had 31 homers, 85 RBI and hit .279 for Columbus. He might be a year away from regular duty in New York, but with Dan Pasqua traded, there might be room.
Claudell Washington is a fill-in, while Gary Ward will be a DH if he sticks. Washington hit .279 and stole 10 bases in 102 games, while hometown boy Henry Cotto was sent to Seattle in the off-season as part of the deal for Lee Guetterman. Ward (.248) saw time in the outfield and split DH duties with Ron Kittle (.277) and they combined for 28 homers. DH Mike Easler hit .281 in 65 games.
Pagliarulo needs a quicker start and a higher batting average than his .234 of last season. But the Yankees will take his glove and especially his arm at third base and the 32 homers and 87 RBI he produced in 1987.
Willie Randolph, off to the best start of his 13-year career, then injured, wound up at .305 with a .411 on-base percentage. He is an overall steadying influence at second.
If only the Yankees could say the same about shortstop and catching. Wayne Tolleson is the best shortstop they have, but he tends to wear down when asked to play too often. To worsen matter, Tolleson underwent surgery for a torn rotator cuff in December. So the Yankees acquired Rafael Santana, who hit .255 with the Mets. He'll be backed by Bobby Meacham (.271 in 77 games), Tolleson and Randy Velarde.
Don Slaught (.224) was acquired from Texas and has a good shot at unseating Rick Cerone (.243) behind the plate. Don't expect too much from Joel Skinner, who had his chances and showed he can't hit in the major leagues.
The pitching staff also has big question marks, but Lou Piniella, boosted to general manager in the latest front office shake-up, made a nice deal in acquiring Richard Dotson from Chicago. A tough competitor, Dotson was 11-12 in 211 innings with 114 strikeouts for a bad team. He'll combine with ace Rick Rhoden (16-10, 3.86 ERA, 107 Ks), Bill Gullickson (4-2, 4.88), ageless Tommy John (13-6, 4.03), Guetterman (11-4, 3.81) and hard-throwing Al Leiter who looked good in three of his four September starts. Ron Guidry (5-8, 3.87) underwent off-season shoulder surgery but should be back early in the season.
The bullpen should be the property of superb left-hander Dave Righetti, who set a major league record for saves with 46 in 1986. But Rags, who filed for free agency and reportedly was upset when Martin returned as manager, could wind up as a starter if he stays and if Billy has his way. That would put Leiter in the bullpen along with Neil Allen, another one of those reclamation cases Martin loves. Steve Trout was traded to Seattle. Also available for relief duty are Charles Hudson (11-7, 3.61), whose torrid start led to such a fade that he wound up in the minors for a while, Pat Clements (3-3, 7 saves) and Cecilio Guante (3-2).
What they don't have is a chance to win the division. Put them down for fifth unless the pitching comes through."
-Norman MacLean, Baseball Forecast 1988
PRIDE AND POWER: THE 1988 YANKEES
"A powerful lineup on paper, as Yankees fans learned in 1987, can be a fragile thing. The '87 Yankees began the year with supposedly the most potent lineup in baseball, and when the team disintegrated in the second half, naturally the thing that was suspect to begin with, the pitching, drew much of the blame.
What tended to be overlooked was the fact that not enough Yankees were touching home plate, something that shouldn't happen with Rickey Henderson, Don Mattingly, Dave Winfield and Mike Pagliarulo in the order.
So how did it happen? Injuries, mostly. Damaged parts- parts that adversely affected other parts until the lineup concept came crashing down.
Forget pitching. The Yankees, to win the American League East in 1988, need to improve their run production. They need to rank better than a league seventh in runs scored, their ranking in 1987.
Enter Jack Clark. When the National League's most dangerous hitter penned a two-year contract with New York in January, Yankees General Manager Lou Piniella called it 'a signing the magnitude of Reggie Jackson's.'
Clark will fill in defensively at first base, left field and right field when needed, but he'll mostly DH, supplying much needed right-handed power.
Clark in 419 at-bats last year hit 35 home runs, had 106 RBI and drew a National League leading 136 walks. He also led the league in slugging (.597) AND on-base percentage (.459). Not a bad acquisition for the cleanup slot!
Manager Billy Martin, in filling out the lineup card, has several options. He has talked of batting Winfield second, or he could do the lefty-righty-lefty-righty thing with Mattingly-Clark-Pagliarulo-Winfield. But let's say he mostly goes with the following lineup:
1. Henderson, LF
2. Randolph, 2B
3. Mattingly, 1B
4. Clark, DH
5. Winfield, RF
6. Pagliarulo, 3B
7. Slaught, C
8. Santana, SS
9. Kelly, CF
It is a batting order that should please Mattingly. Having Henderson and Randolph ahead of him, he'll get his RBI opportunities. And with Clark and Winfield behind him, he should get good pitches.
Whatever the lineup, Clark will have far more protection than he had in St. Louis where he was basically the team's only power hitter. If Winfield and Pagliarulo are hitting, it'll be dangerous for opposing pitchers to walk Clark. He should see many good pitches, too.
The potential is there for a tremendous New York lineup. Not everyone has to have a career year but just about everyone has to stay reasonably healthy. Indeed, for this lineup to realize its great potential, the parts must not only remain in working order but must mesh together to form a unit stronger than their sum.
The Yankees can't afford a repeat of 1987 with Henderson down on June 4 with a pulled hamstring muscle and in and out of the lineup the rest of the year; with Mattingly missing three weeks in June with a back problem; and with Randolph on July 15 beginning a month on the disabled list with torn knee cartilage and playing sparingly for a couple weeks after that.
In the disabled Randolph, the Yankees lost a player who was perhaps the league's second best leadoff man- the backup for Henderson. The attack couldn't survive the loss of both.
The 1987 problems ran on. Winfield struggled in the second half, and with the top of the order weakened, finished with fewer than 100 RBI for the first time since the strike-shortened 1981 season. Gary Ward, a key first half contributor whose bat seemingly grew 'tired,' slumped badly after the All-Star break. Dan Pasqua, since traded, hit 17 home runs in 318 at-bats, but he also fanned 99 times and batted only .233.
Offensively, catcher and shortstop were subpar positions. Wayne Tolleson, until he too went down with a shoulder ailment, played a solid shortstop, but with all their other offensive problems, the Yankees couldn't afford to start a player who on the year had only five extra-base hits in 349 [at-bats]. The Yankees have made changes at the weak positions. Off-season trades netted probable starters catcher Don Slaught and shortstop Rafael Santana.
A fourth new likely starter is the promising farm product, Roberto Kelly. He will be given every opportunity to win the center field job, allowing Henderson to move to his natural position, left field, where he's the best in the business. Kelly, who can really run, would not only help the club defensively, but his speed would be as big a plus to the Yankees' running game as Clark's muscle is to their power game.
Looking more closely at the 1988 Yankee lineup, consider first the only American Leaguer ever to hit 20-plus home runs while stealing 50-plus bases, doing it twice, in his first two Yankee seasons, 1985 and 1986. Rickey Henderson, batting leadoff, didn't reach either mark in 1987, hitting 17 homers and stealing 41 bases. And his most important stat, runs scored, 146 in 1985, was only 78 in 1987.
Henderson's recent-seasons surge in power, cresting in 1986 at 28 home runs, has been a nice bonus, but what has been of top priority is that he score runs. That means getting on base and lighting up the basepaths. His mere presence on the bases distracts- scares- pitchers.
A productive Henderson is critical to New York's 1988 fortunes. Henderson needs healthy legs to play his game, and the planned move to left field should help. Moreover, if there is one Yankee who should be happy to have Martin back, it is Henderson. Billy plays the kind of aggressive baseball that Henderson, who stole 130 bases for him at Oakland in 1982, thrives on.
Randolph, batting second. When he was in there- he played in 120 games and was the Yankees' outstanding player in the first half of 1987- Randolph was excellent. He had the fourth best on-base percentage in the American League (.411), set career highs in batting average (.305) and RBI (67), and scored 96 runs. He also hit .316 with runners in scoring position.
Randolph could have had a career year in 1987 if he had stayed healthy. With a little more rest, that kind of year may be possible in 1988.
Mattingly, batting third. On top of his back injury, Mattingly played much of 1987 with a sprained right wrist. Yet he hit .327 with 30 home runs and 115 RBI. A superlative season!
Don entered the 1987 season generally regarded as the best all-around player in baseball. If there was one knock on Don Mattingly besides his less-than-outstanding running speed (which he can't improve), it was that he had made just one extra-base hit in 47 career at-bats with the bases loaded.
So what did Mattingly do in 1987? He hit six grand slams to establish a new major league record. In fact, in 21 trips to the plate with the bases loaded, Mattingly went 9-for-19 (.474- six home runs, one double, two singles and two sacrifice flies) and drove in 33 runs.
Interestingly, both Henderson and Randolph were on base on four of the six occasions when Mattingly emptied the bases with a grand slam (and Randolph was on a fifth time). When Henderson and Randolph get on base, Mattingly is very dangerous.
Mattingly doesn't have much to prove. Except that he badly wants to play for a championship team. He has, in fact, guaranteed that New York will win the American League East in 1988. A prerequisite for that to happen: players like Henderson and Randolph will have to set the table, and Mattingly will have to drive them home from the get-go. He was hitting only .239 in his first 29 games of 1987.
Clark, batting cleanup. In the total average system developed by sportswriter Thomas Boswell- TA is the ratio between the bases a player accumulates and the outs he costs his team- Clark (1.258) in 1987 ranked first in all baseball.
'Please, Jack,' wrote Boswell in the March 1988 issue of Inside Sports, 'could you bat 600 times so another generation can see what Babe Ruth numbers- 50 homers, 150 RBI, 180 walks- look like?'
Still, possible pitfalls await Clark. He is, after all, coming to another league, with new pitchers, many of whom, unlike the National League's, won't challenge him as often with the fastball. Being a DH is a new experience for Clark as well.
Yankee Stadium is notoriously brutal on right-handed power hitters like Clark. But in 1987 he set a record at spacious Busch Stadium hitting 17 homers there, and with another expansion of Monument Park in 1988, the left field wall at Yankee Stadium is being moved in about 15 feet, which will help.
Finally, why would a solitary guy like Clark willingly move to demanding New York City? 'Actually,' says Clark, 'I'm looking forward to bringing my act there and seeing if it turns anyone on outside the Midwest.'
Almost any Cardinal fan will tell you that if Clark hadn't suffered a ligament tear in his right ankle on September 9, 1987, ending his season for all intents and purposes, the Cards, not the Twins, would have won the 1987 World Series.
Winfield, batting fifth. Winfield carried New York for part of 1987 and came into the All-Star Game with 20 home runs and 68 RBI in 85 games. He was hardly a positive factor thereafter, however, hitting only seven home runs and driving in only 29 runs in 71 games. His failure to reach 100 RBI on the season was partly attributable to the losses of Henderson and Randolph, yet Dave's disappointing second half really diminished his accomplishments which included a Gold Glove and a .351 average with men in scoring position. Bigger things are expected from Winfield in 1988. At 36, he may need occasional rests, but the big guy has been amazingly durable, playing at least 140 games in each of the last six seasons. He could crank it up big one more time.
Pagliarulo, batting sixth. Tough and hardworking, Pagliarulo in his four-year Yankee career has improved each season in runs, hits, doubles, home runs and RBI. With increasing playing time, he has made steady improvement. Now a vital cog in the Yankee machine, his 32 home runs last year led the club.
But for the left-handed hitting Pagliarulo to have a big numbers season, he will have to hit with more power against left-handed pitching. Over the last two seasons, Pags has hit 54 home runs in 710 at-bats against right-handed pitching- a superlative total- but only six home runs in 315 at-bats against lefties. He did raise his batting average 34 points against left-handed pitching in 1987, however.
Slaught, batting seventh. Slaught could be the Yankees' best offensive catcher in some time. Although he had an off-year with Texas in 1987, he is a .270 lifetime hitter and in 1986 set a Texas club record for home runs by a catcher with 13. He could add some pop. 'He's a tough kid and he will fit in nicely with our team,' says Piniella.
Santana, batting eighth. Santana in 1987 raised his batting average 37 points (to .255), set new career highs in home runs (5), RBI (44) and runs (41). But he doesn't hit for power or enhance New York's running game (only two career stolen bases); his main role is to provide solid, Bucky Dent-style shortstopping.
Kelly, batting ninth. After stealing 51 bases in 61 attempts at Columbus to lead the International League, Roberto displayed his great speed in a 23-game look-see with New York in 1987.
Billy Martin likes Kelly in center field. It allows Henderson to shift to left field, forming a potentially best-in-the-game defensive outfield. Also, Kelly batting ninth in front of Henderson adds immensely to New York's running game.
It must be understood, however, that Kelly is still developing. His 13 home runs at Columbus constituted his first show of power, and he struck out 116 times in 118 games. But he has a great attitude. 'I've never seen a player improve more than Roberto,' says Columbus manager Bucky Dent, 'and part of the reason is his willingness to listen.'
Two holdovers from 1987, Gary Ward and Claudell Washington, could add sock to the lineup. The left-handed hitting Washington, a valuable fourth outfielder and a good all-around offensive player, could platoon with Kelly or handle the center field job if Kelly falters.
The Yankees also have a pair of power-hitting prospects. Jay Buhner hit 31 home runs last year to lead the International League. Orestes Destrade also had a fine year at Columbus (25 HR, 81 RBI) and, like Buhner, finished in New York. Destrade is primarily a first baseman saddled with a guy named Mattingly in front of him.
The prospects, the bench strength and the bottom third are all important, especially Kelly, but for the Yankees to put up eye-popping offensive numbers, the first six hitters- Henderson, Randolph, Mattingly, Clark, Winfield, Pagliarulo- will have to carry the bulk of the load. The top two-thirds of the lineup have these career highs (full seasons) for four important offensive statistics:
Henderson- .319 BA (1981), 28 HR (1986), 74 RBI (1986), 130 SB (1982)
Randolph- .305 BA (1987), 7 HR (1980 and 1987), 67 RBI (1987), 37 SB (1976)
Mattingly - .352 BA (1986), 35 HR (1985), 145 RBI (1985)
Clark - .306 BA (1978), 35 HR (1987), 106 RBI (1987), 15 SB (1978)
Winfield - .340 BA (1984), 37 HR (1982), 118 RBI (1979), 26 SB (1976)
Pagliarulo - .239 (1984 and 1985), 32 HR (1987), 87 RBI (1987)
The 1987 Minnesota Twins, a team with a bloated ERA of 4.63, won a World Championship with mediocre speed, a batting average one point lower than the Yankees' and a run total two less than the Yankees'. But they had four big guns: Kent Hrbek (34 HR, 90 RBI), Tom Brunansky (32 HR, 85 RBI), Gary Gaetti (31 HR, 109 RBI) and Kirby Puckett (28 HR, 99 RBI). The Yankees now have four players who can match those numbers.
Actually, the Oakland A's may be the team to beat in run production in 1988. The additions of Dave Parker and Don Baylor, two aging lions, to a lineup already featuring Mark McGwire, Jose Canseco, Carney Lansford and Terry Steinbach, is ominous.
The Yankees SHOULD scare opposing pitchers in 1988. But what happens if Mattingly and Pagliarulo once more start slowly, if Clark needs time to adjust to new surroundings, if Henderson and Randolph again are ensnared by long-term injuries? A lineup is a fragile thing.
The 1982 pennant-winning Brewers possessed one of the most destructive lineups in recent times, led by Cecil Cooper, Gorman Thomas, Robin Yount, Ben Oglive, Ted Simmons and Paul Molitor. Then, in 1983, Oglive was suddenly over the hill, Yount and Molitor slipped a little more than slightly and Thomas started slowly and was traded. Burdened with offensive problems never envisioned, Milwaukee limped home in fifth place.
A lineup is a fragile thing. The Yankees will make it their strength in 1988."
-Mark Gallagher, The New York Yankees Official 1988 Yearbook
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